THE BOX MODEL

How It Works Today

Institutions with predictive modeling capabilities tend to use it in two ways:

1. to help target promising demographics for list purchases
2. to determine whether an applicant would deposit if admitted

Perhaps it’s no surprise that these are the very uses of predictive modeling I find most offensive.

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What Comes Next

Parts: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6

It can be very hard to stop thinking in terms of prospects, inquiries, applicants, admits, and accepts.  But freeing yourself from that mindset is essential to moving your institution to the next level of engagement and selectivity.

As you develop your transition criteria and brainstorm new initiatives, always try to keep in mind the beliefs this new model was based on:

• We no longer control the information students use to make their decisions.
• Using contact to measure interest is hazardous at worse and worthless at best.
• Institutions exist from the student perspective, not the other way around.
• There is no such thing as an inquiry; until they apply, everyone is a prospect.
• Forcing students through stages leads to inflated and diluted cohorts.
• Students should never be discarded from the model, but…
• Students should be able to leave the model at any point.
• Measure transition criteria; no other criteria are important.

The description and approach you should use for each prospect cohort are as follows:

• Low-cohort prospects have not yet placed your institution on their shortlist.  Start a value dialogue and allow students with no interest in your institution to exit as quickly as possible.
• Medium-cohort prospects display some interest in your school but have not yet decided to apply.  Discover and address their concerns.
• High-cohort students will apply to your institution when given the opportunity.  Provide one-to-one guidance and begin building a network with alumni, faculty, staff, and students.

I wish you all the best.

Using the New Model

Parts: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6

Now that we have a model that represents the college search process from the student perspective, with transition criteria our institution can use to accurately identify interest and commitment, we can begin identifying approaches for each stage that will help us to develop recruitment initiatives that provide real value to our students.

Here, then, is the completed model, now with suggested approaches layered on top of the different stages.  As you may have guessed from the nursing example above, there is a significant difference in strategy required for high-cohort prospects as opposed to low- and medium-cohort prospects.  This also goes back to our earlier warning about treating high-cohort prospects the same way you treat your other prospects.  Students who submit their test scores prior to their senior year, for example, should no longer be recruited; you have already succeeded in recruiting them, now you should move on to guidance and retention.

The criteria you defined for T1 and T2 may help you to identify which specific initiatives you should pursue.  For example, if you now believe that a search response must be paired with some other positive indicator of interest to qualify the student for a transition from the low- to medium-cohort, then that might change how you construct your search campaign.  Your push would no longer be to generate a response but to begin a value dialogue.

A value dialogue means finding out what the prospect wants and where your institution fits in.  Many schools would begin this process by asking their prospects what their interests are.  But most students are savvy enough to know the game is rigged–no matter which interests they choose, your institution is probably the “perfect” match for them.  Rankings work the same way; throwing numbers at a student does nothing to convince them you would really be a good match.

Instead, a better approach would be to highlight successful students and alumni in a variety of fields (even if those fields might not match the student’s current interests).  Success stories will not give you the market penetration you would get by professing to be “all things,” but the projection of success and its association with your curriculum, faculty, campus life, or other quality unique to your school, could help move interested low-cohort students into the medium cohort.

The viewbook also acts as a simple value dialogue.  Students use the viewbook to discard institutions that do not have their major, are the wrong size, or just do not match with their self-perception.  Since applying is the milestone in prospects’ minds, your goal with the low-cohort prospects is to present your school accurately and let those students for whom the message does not resonate exit as soon as possible.

Those students for whom the message resonates will eventually move into the medium cohort.  Students here should demonstrate many of the characteristics associated with inquiries under the traditional enrollment funnel.  However, unlike in the enrollment funnel, the goal of the medium cohort is not to get students to apply but to show enough value to them that they will apply when the opportunity becomes available.  This expands our recruitment market beyond current high school seniors to students in all years in high school.  It also helps address one of the more bizarre results of current search campaigns: the long gap between becoming an inquiry as a responder sophomore or junior year and applying as a senior.

Initiatives targeting medium-cohort prospects should aim to identify those concerns or problems that could keep the student from applying.  Although each student can be worried about different things at different stages in the process, common concerns include financial aid, academic reputation, advising, housing, dining, campus safety, athletic and extracurricular opportunities, and overall quality of student life.

These concerns all fall under the general umbrella of “security,” both economic and personal. Economic security includes financial aid and whether or not the school’s academic reputation will lead to job opportunities.  Personal security includes academic support, physical comfort, safety, recreation, and friendships.

For that reason, your initiatives targeting medium-cohort prospects should aim to identify and address their particular concerns.  Your goal is not to push them (or worse, bribe them using fee waivers) to apply.  Instead, address their concerns and they will move into the high-cohort stage of their own accord, ready to apply when the time comes.

Assume your initiatives for the low- and medium-cohorts have succeeded and your high-cohort population contains students who are very likely to apply when your application becomes available their senior year.  Accordingly, at this point, you should switch from a recruitment to a retention approach, providing one-to-one guidance your prospects will value.

It may seem odd to try to retain students who have not yet been admitted.  But since application rates directly affect selectivity and you know these students are committed to your school, the students in the high cohort will always be worth your time and attention.  For that reason, if your counselors do not give out their direct phone numbers, e-mail addresses, or instant messenger screen names, they should make an exception for this group.

Retaining these students will require you to build a network beyond your office.  Encourage your alumni, faculty, and student service departments to reach out to these students and their families.  Connect them with the leaders of campus clubs matching their interests.  More relationships at this stage will lead to higher application completion rates and an easier job getting admits to deposit.  In other words, when your relationships increase, your institution’s selectivity will follow.

Students who begin the application process and move to the “incomplete applicant” stage should still no longer be recruited.  Our goal for the remaining students is to encourage them to complete by continuing to provide counsel and guidance.  If possible, expand the scope of your relationships to their parents and high school counselors, since they have a large impact on student completion rates.

As one example, consider inviting high school counselors to fill out an online form to help identify scholarship opportunities for applicants from their schools.  While there, let them know which students still need to submit transcripts or teacher recommendations (perhaps required in order to be considered for award consideration).  Or, invite parents to fill out a “brag sheet” that will be read by the admission counselor and used when determining scholarships.  While filling out the brag sheet, identify for the parents the remaining application items their children still need to submit.  Be considerate of which items you show to parents; keep in mind that school teachers and counselors would not appreciate parents calling them to complain about late items.

Once a student is admitted, you should continue to use a retention approach.  Do not slip back into the recruitment mentality of the enrollment funnel; more than at any other stage, admitted students should be treated as if they had already decided to enroll.  Expand or build upon the network of relationships you created when they were in the high-cohort stage.  For example, ask your residential life office to combine residential advisor training with a mentorship program for incoming students.

Send admitted students your university’s logo on a window decal for their car (and their parent’s).  Create a website where they can meet other admitted students and cement their commitment to your institution.  Perhaps build online communities themed around each of your freshmen dormitories, and let students join the one they find most interesting.  Embed chat rooms into the website and set up “dorm parties” where students can mingle on nights and weekends.

Next: What Comes Next