THE BOX MODEL

Prospect Transitions

Parts: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6

Luckily, in this model, transition criteria are completely defined by institutions.  In fact, the transition criteria can be unique for each school.

For easy reference, I have labeled the transition from low- to medium-cohort T1 and labeled the transition from medium- to high-cohort as T2.

T1 and T2 will likely consist of multiple institution-defined criteria.  To move into a higher cohort, students can match either a single criterion, a subset of criteria, or all of them; it is up to you to find the set of measurements that best models student characteristics and behaviors.  This is an area that will likely require tweaking at least once each year through solid research and analysis.

Be careful not to set the criteria too low.  An institution stuck recruiting in the enrollment funnel mindset would likely set a response to search as one of the criteria for T1.  And, of course, that could be a valuable measurement when combined with some other demonstration of positive interest.  But, by itself, responding to search only means the student is willing to hear more about your institution (and sometimes not even that much); she has not yet made the emotional transition that is required to cross into the medium cohort.

We face the constant desire to increase the number of students in later stages of our model, but this temptation must be avoided.  The goal for low-cohort prospects is to build a relationship that leads to a subset of them placing your institution on their short list.  It is not in your long-term interest to try to move every low-cohort prospect into the medium cohort.  In fact, it is preferable that students who will never end up applying are weeded out as early as possible.  That may sound like an obvious piece of advice, but many institutions try to position themselves as all things to all people.  Not only does that lower your credibility, it also overextends your resources trying to recruit students who will eventually (because they are intelligent) realize that attending your institution is not in their best interest and either never apply, never complete their application, never deposit, renege on their decision to enroll, or (in the worst case) never matriculate.

Always keep in mind that this model is not about pushing students from one stage to the next; instead, its goal is to more accurately identify when students have made those transitions themselves so you can better recruit the kids who believe they are a good match for your school.

To avoid inflation, the basic idea behind each criterion for a transition point is that it must accurately reflect behavior for at least 75% of the students who fall into that category.  For example, if you believe a campus visit should be a criterion for transition from low to medium cohort, then at least 3 out of every 4 people who visit your campus should demonstrate the behavior of medium prospects.  That is, at least 75% of your campus visitors should immediately show an increased commitment to your institution.

If you examine your data, however, you would likely find that percentage a little lower.  If so, it could be because families who take the college search process very seriously more frequently use campus visits to eliminate a school from a longer list of possible schools.  Or it could be because demonstrating an increase in commitment requires at least a small passage of time.

If you find yourself in this situation, then you can combine your “campus visit” criterion with some further measurable action occurring after the visit, such as a request for department-specific information, an e-mail to a faculty member, or attendance at an off-campus event in the student’s area.  Recall that contact by itself is not an indicator of interest; however, if it occurs after some opportunity to remove your school from consideration (such as a campus visit), then it could be worthy of a transition point.  In this case, it would depend on whether or not 75% of your prospects who match these two criteria demonstrate the characteristics of the medium cohort.

To become a high-cohort prospect, the student must meet one, some, or all the criteria you define as part of T2.  These criteria should indicate (again, for at least 3 out of every 4 prospects), that the student is ready to apply to your institution.  One example might be receiving an official test score from a student prior to her senior year in high school.  After all, if she is willing to pay to send your institution her test scores, she is probably fairly committed to applying.  You will end up with a leaner medium cohort if you come up with accurate T2 criteria that prospective students can demonstrate in any year of high school.

Another example of a good T2 criterion might be a request for an application or fee waiver.  For that reason, fee waivers should always be provided if requested, but never given out automatically.  If students receive automatic fee waivers, then you have lost the ability to use them as an accurate transition criteria into the high-cohort.  You have also potentially diminished the quality of your high-cohort prospect pool.

Unlike the stages in the model, these example criteria are all clearly institution-defined.  What is nice about this approach is that students cannot “game” the system because they do not know the transition points.  And because the criteria are based on hard data and apply to at least 75% of your prospects, you can be confident that students settle into the correct cohort, without inflation.  If you are fighting the reputation of being a “safety school” for other institutions, this model can help you weed out or deny those students who do not have a genuinely strong interest in your institution.

Just as the point of the model is not to push students from one stage to the next, the point of segmenting prospects using transition criteria is not so you can discard lower cohorts for higher.  An institution that targets a single cohort to the exclusion of the others does so at its own peril because it ignores the fact that not all prospects enter the search process at the same time.  As helpful as transitions are to institutions, never forget that everyone is a prospect until they apply.

Next: Moving Beyond Prospect